Posted at 2013.02.07 Category : Washington Post
これまでの日本の状況を振り返ると「景気刺激策を実施しても、一時的には景気が回復しても、すぐに元通りになって借金が残るだけではないか」このように考えるのが一般的ではないでしょうか。そのような方向性で書かれたのがワシントンポストのOpEd記事です。サミュエルソンはニューズウィークのコラムを書いていた人でもあるので、ご存じの方も多いのではないでしょうか。
Japan is caught in a stimulus trap
By Robert J. Samuelson, Published: February 4
Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is trying to revive the country’s flagging economy, and we could all learn from the exercise. You may recall that, in the 1980s, Japan was widely anointed as the next economic superpower, displacing the United States. It’s been a long slide since. In the 1990s, the “bubble economy” of high stock and real estate prices burst. The stock market is roughly a quarter of its high. Land prices have tumbled to 1975 levels. Since 2000, economic growth has averaged less than 1 percent annually. Government debt has ballooned to 214 percent of the economy (gross national product), about double the level of most advanced countries. Some superpower.
景気刺激策に対しては、Stimulus becomes a narcoticとか、Considering this, Japan isn’t an attractive place for private investmentとか、あまりいいことは語っていません。景気刺激策によって本来退場すべき非効率な会社が生き残るのではという従来から言われてきた懸念も指摘しています。
The lesson is that huge budget deficits and ultra-low interest rates — the basics of stimulus — have limits and can be self-defeating. To use a well-worn metaphor: Stimulus becomes a narcotic. People feel better for a while, but the effect wears off. The economy then needs a new fix. Too many fixes may spawn new problems (examples: excessive debt, asset “bubbles,” inflation). That’s already happened in Japan.
************
Considering this, Japan isn’t an attractive place for private investment. A declining population reinforces the effect. Katz of the Oriental Economist suggests spurring growth by dismantling protections for sheltered domestic industries. Higher growth would emerge as “inefficient firms die [and are] replaced by better firms.” But Japan’s leaders have generally shunned this complex and contentious approach. Once the present stimulus fades, Katz writes, it’s likely “Japan will fall back to stagnation.”
そのような従来の見方に異議を唱えているのが、クルーグマン教授です。彼はアベノミクスを支持していると日本のメディアでも取り上げていますよね。
February 5, 2013, 10:12 am93 Comments
The Japan Story
Dean Baker is annoyed at Robert Samuelson, not for the first time, and with reason. The idea of invoking Japan, of all places, to justify fears that stimulus leads to inflation or asset bubbles is just bizarre. And while there is much shaking of heads about Japanese debt, the ill-effects if any of that debt are by no means obvious.
But what remains true is that Japan has run budget deficits for many years while delivering what appears on the surface to be very disappointing economic performance. What’s the story there?
My answer would run in two parts.
その答えと言うのが以下の二つなんですが、日本の人口は増えていないので一人当たりでGDPを考えれば成長しているのだと語っています。
First, you should never make comments on Japanese growth or lack thereof without taking demography into account. Japan has low fertility and low immigration; this has translated into a dramatically aging population and a declining working-age population. So what does Japan’s performance look like if you calculate real GDP per working-age adult? (In the picture below I define working-age as 15-64; this is one case in which you DO NOT WANT to look at FRED, which defines working age as 16+ and therefore takes no account of aging).
*************
And one other thing: Japanese monetary policy was still up against the zero lower bound in 2007, leaving it no room to counter the Great Recession, and hence leaving Japan open to a deep slump when exports plunged.
このような状況で必要なことは以下のように述べています。インフレを肯定していますね。
Why is Japan in this situation? A debt overhang from the 1980s bubble surely started the process; but surely it’s reasonable to suggest that the demography also contributes, since a declining working-age population depresses the demand for investment.
What you need in this situation is a negative real interest rate — which means that you need some expected inflation, because nominal rates face the zero lower bound.
古い見方かもしれませんが、人口も国力で、人口が少なければパイも小さいですから、経済の見通しも暗い感じがしてしまうのですが。。。そもそも高齢になれば消費も少なくなっていくでしょうし。。。。
クルーグマンの見方を肯定したフォーブスのブログ記事もありました。日本は米国なんかよりもうまくやっているんだと、自動車産業と平均寿命を挙げて訴えています。
BUSINESS | 2/06/2013 @ 11:40AM |1,389 views
Paul Krugman Says It Again: Japan's Stagnation Is A Myth
Almost everywhere you look in the details of the Japan story you find that the basket case story could not be further from the truth. Just look at Japanese corporations. Virtually without exception they have continued to boost their revenues — and maintained their employment levels — in the face of a constantly rising yen. The Japanese car industry, for instance, has continued to make extraordinary gains. Toyota boasted sales in its latest fiscal year to $259.5 billion, more than three times its 1989 total of $84.1 billion. And this in a year when output was greatly curtailed by the earthquake. Nissan meanwhile clocked $119.0 billion, also more than triple 1989. Similarly the rest of the Japanese auto industry has gone from strength to strength. The same cannot be said for Detroit. Ford Motor’s sales last year totaled $133.3 billion, up a mere 44 percent on $92.4 billion in 1989. General Motors’s sales were $150.3 billion, up just 24 percent on $121.1 billion in 1989. Not only have the Detroit companies retreated in the face of Japanese advances in the American domestic market but their European subsidiaries have also long been ceding share, as have such European players as Peugeot-Citroen, Volvo, Jaguar, and, of course, Renault.
************
As for Japan’s demographics, these are conventionally presented as obvious evidence of Japan’s “malaise.” They are actually the opposite. The reason Japan’s demographics are aging so fast is because the Japanese health service has achieved extraordinary success in boosting the Japanese people’s life expectancy. It should be remembered that in the late 1940s Japanese life expectancy at birth was eleven years shorter than in the United States. Now it is four years longer. Meanwhile the Japanese government went from promoting very large families in the 1930s to small families from the late 1940s onwards.
日本人としては、こういう見方も一面的に感じますよね。家電業界の状況何かを考えると、うまくやっているという感覚はないですし、高齢化社会の不安も大きいですから。。。。
Japan is caught in a stimulus trap
By Robert J. Samuelson, Published: February 4
Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is trying to revive the country’s flagging economy, and we could all learn from the exercise. You may recall that, in the 1980s, Japan was widely anointed as the next economic superpower, displacing the United States. It’s been a long slide since. In the 1990s, the “bubble economy” of high stock and real estate prices burst. The stock market is roughly a quarter of its high. Land prices have tumbled to 1975 levels. Since 2000, economic growth has averaged less than 1 percent annually. Government debt has ballooned to 214 percent of the economy (gross national product), about double the level of most advanced countries. Some superpower.
景気刺激策に対しては、Stimulus becomes a narcoticとか、Considering this, Japan isn’t an attractive place for private investmentとか、あまりいいことは語っていません。景気刺激策によって本来退場すべき非効率な会社が生き残るのではという従来から言われてきた懸念も指摘しています。
The lesson is that huge budget deficits and ultra-low interest rates — the basics of stimulus — have limits and can be self-defeating. To use a well-worn metaphor: Stimulus becomes a narcotic. People feel better for a while, but the effect wears off. The economy then needs a new fix. Too many fixes may spawn new problems (examples: excessive debt, asset “bubbles,” inflation). That’s already happened in Japan.
************
Considering this, Japan isn’t an attractive place for private investment. A declining population reinforces the effect. Katz of the Oriental Economist suggests spurring growth by dismantling protections for sheltered domestic industries. Higher growth would emerge as “inefficient firms die [and are] replaced by better firms.” But Japan’s leaders have generally shunned this complex and contentious approach. Once the present stimulus fades, Katz writes, it’s likely “Japan will fall back to stagnation.”
そのような従来の見方に異議を唱えているのが、クルーグマン教授です。彼はアベノミクスを支持していると日本のメディアでも取り上げていますよね。
February 5, 2013, 10:12 am93 Comments
The Japan Story
Dean Baker is annoyed at Robert Samuelson, not for the first time, and with reason. The idea of invoking Japan, of all places, to justify fears that stimulus leads to inflation or asset bubbles is just bizarre. And while there is much shaking of heads about Japanese debt, the ill-effects if any of that debt are by no means obvious.
But what remains true is that Japan has run budget deficits for many years while delivering what appears on the surface to be very disappointing economic performance. What’s the story there?
My answer would run in two parts.
その答えと言うのが以下の二つなんですが、日本の人口は増えていないので一人当たりでGDPを考えれば成長しているのだと語っています。
First, you should never make comments on Japanese growth or lack thereof without taking demography into account. Japan has low fertility and low immigration; this has translated into a dramatically aging population and a declining working-age population. So what does Japan’s performance look like if you calculate real GDP per working-age adult? (In the picture below I define working-age as 15-64; this is one case in which you DO NOT WANT to look at FRED, which defines working age as 16+ and therefore takes no account of aging).
*************
And one other thing: Japanese monetary policy was still up against the zero lower bound in 2007, leaving it no room to counter the Great Recession, and hence leaving Japan open to a deep slump when exports plunged.
このような状況で必要なことは以下のように述べています。インフレを肯定していますね。
Why is Japan in this situation? A debt overhang from the 1980s bubble surely started the process; but surely it’s reasonable to suggest that the demography also contributes, since a declining working-age population depresses the demand for investment.
What you need in this situation is a negative real interest rate — which means that you need some expected inflation, because nominal rates face the zero lower bound.
古い見方かもしれませんが、人口も国力で、人口が少なければパイも小さいですから、経済の見通しも暗い感じがしてしまうのですが。。。そもそも高齢になれば消費も少なくなっていくでしょうし。。。。
クルーグマンの見方を肯定したフォーブスのブログ記事もありました。日本は米国なんかよりもうまくやっているんだと、自動車産業と平均寿命を挙げて訴えています。
BUSINESS | 2/06/2013 @ 11:40AM |1,389 views
Paul Krugman Says It Again: Japan's Stagnation Is A Myth
Almost everywhere you look in the details of the Japan story you find that the basket case story could not be further from the truth. Just look at Japanese corporations. Virtually without exception they have continued to boost their revenues — and maintained their employment levels — in the face of a constantly rising yen. The Japanese car industry, for instance, has continued to make extraordinary gains. Toyota boasted sales in its latest fiscal year to $259.5 billion, more than three times its 1989 total of $84.1 billion. And this in a year when output was greatly curtailed by the earthquake. Nissan meanwhile clocked $119.0 billion, also more than triple 1989. Similarly the rest of the Japanese auto industry has gone from strength to strength. The same cannot be said for Detroit. Ford Motor’s sales last year totaled $133.3 billion, up a mere 44 percent on $92.4 billion in 1989. General Motors’s sales were $150.3 billion, up just 24 percent on $121.1 billion in 1989. Not only have the Detroit companies retreated in the face of Japanese advances in the American domestic market but their European subsidiaries have also long been ceding share, as have such European players as Peugeot-Citroen, Volvo, Jaguar, and, of course, Renault.
************
As for Japan’s demographics, these are conventionally presented as obvious evidence of Japan’s “malaise.” They are actually the opposite. The reason Japan’s demographics are aging so fast is because the Japanese health service has achieved extraordinary success in boosting the Japanese people’s life expectancy. It should be remembered that in the late 1940s Japanese life expectancy at birth was eleven years shorter than in the United States. Now it is four years longer. Meanwhile the Japanese government went from promoting very large families in the 1930s to small families from the late 1940s onwards.
日本人としては、こういう見方も一面的に感じますよね。家電業界の状況何かを考えると、うまくやっているという感覚はないですし、高齢化社会の不安も大きいですから。。。。
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