（続）アメリカの３つの選択

アメリカ外交の選択肢についてIndispensable, Moneyball, Independentとキャッチーに分けた雑誌TIMEの特集ですが、アカデミックにやろうとすると以下のような分類があるようです。

参考　アメリカ外交の４潮流
　アメリカの外交は必ずしも孤立主義が不動の原則なのではなく、いくつかの路線、理念が複雑にからまりながら、国際情勢と国内情勢の変化に伴って変転している。アメリカの外交政策に、（１）ハミルトン型、（２）ジェファーソン型、（３）ウィルソン型、（４）ジャクソン型、の４つの潮流があることをウォルター・ミード『神の特別なお慈悲』2001をもとに、村田晃嗣『アメリカ外交　希望と苦悩』2005　講談社現代新書　p.35-41で論じられている。それによると、各潮流は次のようにまとめることが出来るという。

　（１）ハミルトン型（ハミルトニアン）　・海洋国家をめざす。対外関与に積極的。国内の限界に楽観的。
　（２）ジェファーソン型（ジェファーソニアン）　・大陸国家をめざす。選択的な対外関与。国力の限界に自覚的。
　（３）ウィルソン型（ウィルソニアン）　・普遍的な理念を外交目標として追求。
　（４）ジャクソン型（ジャクソニアン）　・国権の発動や国威の高揚を重視。軍事力に傾斜。　

この分類を歴代大統領に当てはめた記事が以下です。

All the Presidents’ Men
Many politicians, public intellectuals, and political pundits have been greatly influenced by former U.S. presidents, be it Jefferson, Hamilton, Wilson, or Jackson.
BY WALTER RUSSELL MEAD
JANUARY 1, 2010
All the Presidents’ Men

ブレマーの特集記事で個人的に気になったのは、世代ギャップによって意見が変わっていることです。大阪都構想でも世代ギャップが話題になりましたが、世界的な動向のようなものがあるかもしれません。

Generation gap
39%
of voters 60 and over believe that Indispensable is the best choice for American foreign policy
While…
41%
of voters 44 and below prefer the Independent path

ミレニアル世代については先月の実践ビジネス英語のトピックでもありました。以下の動画では日本の「ゆとり世代」のように扱われていますが、実践ビジネス英語ではそのようなメディア的な視点ではない部分も取り上げていました。



ブレマーが支持していたIndependentの方向性というのはこのミレニアル世代の指向ともあっているのだなと実践ビジネス英語の会話を読み直して感じました。大人になったミレニアル世代というPew Researchの昨年の調査結果もIndependent指向について触れています。まあ、アメリカの政治的立場の場合は、民主党でも共和党でもない、日本でいう無所属の意味に近いですが。。。

MARCH 7, 2014
Millennials in Adulthood
Detached from Institutions, Networked with Friends

The Millennial generation is forging a distinctive path into adulthood. Now ranging in age from 18 to 331, they are relatively unattached to organized politics and religion, linked by social media, burdened by debt, distrustful of people, in no rush to marry— and optimistic about the future.

They are also America’s most racially diverse generation. In all of these dimensions, they are different from today’s older generations. And in many, they are also different from older adults back when they were the age Millennials are now.

Pew Research Center surveys show that half of Millennials (50%) now describe themselves as political independents and about three-in-ten (29%) say they are not affiliated with any religion. These are at or near the highest levels of political and religious disaffiliation recorded for any generation in the quarter-century that the Pew Research Center has been polling on these topics.

Independentであり、Isolationismではないということはブレマーの記事で幾度か触れています。

（ロングマン）
isolationism
beliefs or actions that are based on the political principle that your country should not be involved in the affairs of other countries

This might sound like isolationism, a term that’s been the kiss of death in U.S. politics since World War II. But that word is an unfair dismissal of every legitimate concern Americans have about the obvious foreign policy excesses and costly miscalculations of their government. Those who want Washington to declare independence from the need to play Superman believe that the U.S. has profound potential that’s been wasted in mistakes overseas. Imagine for a moment that every dollar spent in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past dozen years had been spent instead to empower Americans and their economy. Redirect the attention, energy and resources we now squander on a failed superhero foreign policy toward building the America we imagine, one that empowers all its people to realize their human potential.

*********

These are not isolationist values. The U.S. should continue to export and import goods and ideas, and welcome the citizens of other countries who would come to America legally, as millions have done since our founding. The U.S. should also accept more of the world’s refugees, whose numbers are now at the highest level since the end of World War II. The civil war in Syria has forced up to 4 million people to flee their country, yet the U.S. has so far accepted fewer than 1,000 of them. “Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” That’s a principle, inscribed in the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty, that Americans can be proud of–and one on which we’ve too often fallen short.

ブレマー氏はIndependentを支持していると記事で明言していましたが、キッシンジャー氏が昨年出した本World OrderではAmerican leadership has been indispensableとindispensableの立場で、What it does not permit is withdrawalとしていたんですよね。このあたりの意見の違いも面白いと思いました。

Throughout, American leadership has been indispensable, even when it has been exercised ambivalently. It has sought a balance between stability and advocacy of universal principles not always reconcilable with principles of sovereign noninterference or other nations’ historical experience. The quest for that balance, between the uniqueness of the American experience and the idealistic confidence in its universality, between the poles of overconfidence and introspection, is inherently unending. What it does not permit is withdrawal.

まあ、ブレマー氏ならキッシンジャーをMoneyballに分類するのかもしれませんが。。。（苦笑）