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IKEA effectをご存知ですか

今週のNatureは「人は見たいものしか見ない」という耳の痛い問題とその対処方法を取り上げています。まあ、解決法は見慣れたものばかりですが、自分でいざ実行するとなると難しいんですよね。Nature の社説ではhuman brain’s habit of finding what it wants to find(見つけたいものを見つけるという人の脳の習慣)と表現されています。

Let’s think about cognitive bias
The human brain’s habit of finding what it wants to find is a key problem for research. Establishing robust methods to avoid such bias will make results more reproducible.

07 October 2015

“Ever since I first learned about confirmation bias I’ve been seeing it everywhere.” So said British author and broadcaster Jon Ronson in So You’ve Been Publicly Shamed (Picador, 2015).

You will see a lot of cognitive bias in this week’s Nature. In a series of articles, we examine the impact that bias can have on research, and the best ways to identify and tackle it. One enemy of robust science is our humanity — our appetite for being right, and our tendency to find patterns in noise, to see supporting evidence for what we already believe is true, and to ignore the facts that do not fit.

The sources and types of such cognitive bias — and the fallacies they produce — are becoming more widely appreciated. Some of the problems are as old as science itself, and some are new: the IKEA effect, for example, describes a cognitive bias among consumers who place artificially high value on products that they have built themselves. Another common fallacy in research is the Texas sharp-shooter effect — firing off a few rounds and then drawing a bull’s eye around the bullet holes. And then there is asymmetrical attention: carefully debugging analyses and debunking data that counter a favoured hypothesis, while letting evidence in favour of the hypothesis slide by unexamined.

cognitive bias(認知バイアス)の一例としてあげられていたIKEA効果。IKEAで買った家具を自分で組み立てるとその家具を好きになるという効果だそうですが、WikipediaやTedトークなんかにも取り上げられていたとは知りませんでした。

IKEA effect
The IKEA effect is a cognitive bias in which consumers place a disproportionately high value on products they partially created.[1] The name derives from the Swedish manufacturer and furniture retailer IKEA, which sells many furniture products that require assembly.

今週のNatureではcognitive biasを避けるための科学的な指針を打ち立てる必要性を訴えています。

Advocates of robust science have repeatedly warned against cognitive habits that can lead to error. Although such awareness is essential, it is insufficient. The scientific community needs concrete guidance on how to manage its all-too-human biases and avoid the errors they cause.

Human, All Too Human (Menschliches, Allzumenschliches)というニーチェの有名な本がベースかわかりませんがall-too-human(あまりに人間的な)はちょくちょく使われる表現ではあります。表現自体はニーチェの本とは無関係に使われていますが、雑学的に教養的知識を仕入れておくと何かと読解には役立ちます。


How scientists fool themselves – and how they can stop
Humans are remarkably good at self-deception. But growing concern about reproducibility is driving many researchers to seek ways to fight their own worst instincts.
Regina Nuzzo
07 October 2015

Blind analysis: Hide results to seek the truth
Robert MacCoun & Saul Perlmutter

07 October 2015

Crowdsourced research: Many hands make tight work
Raphael Silberzahn& Eric L. Uhlmann

07 October 2015

その中でHow scientists fool themselves – and how they can stopという記事にあったコンパクトなまとめCognitive fallacies in researchとその対応策であるDebiasing techniquesを紹介します。

Cognitive fallacies in research
Hypothesis myopia
Collecting evidence to support a hypothesis, not looking for evidence against it, and ignoring other explanations

Texas sharpshooter
Seizing on random patterns in the data and mistaking them for interesting findings

Asymmetric attention
Rigorously checking unexpected results, but giving expected ones a free pass

Just-so storytelling
Finding stories after the fact to rationalize whatever the results turn out to be

Debiasing techniques
Devil’s advocacy
Explicitly consider alternative hypothesis – then test them out head-to-head.

Publicly declare a data collection and analysis plan before starting the study

Team of rivals
Invite your academic adversaries to collaborate with you on a study

Blind data analysis
Analyse data that look real but are not exactly what you collected – and then lift the blind