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自分が読んで興味深く感じた英文記事を中心に取り上げる予定です

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毎年恒例の。。。

 


地政学的なリスクについて今年もユーラシアグループが発表していました。Timeでもコラムを書いているIan Bremmerです。動画ではサウジアラビアの反体制派の処刑についてはサウジ国内向けのメッセージで、47人の処刑のうち46名がスンニ派だったと冷静に分析しています。

Top Risks 2016
Ian Bremmer, President
Cliff Kupchan, Chairman
Published January 4, 2016


We first wrote about the G-Zero five years ago. It’s now fully upon us, and the unwinding of the US-led geopolitical order will accelerate in 2016. There is growing political division in a year with a presidential election in the United States and a foundational political crisis for Europe. Russia, in decline, is led by an increasingly combative—and resurgent—Vladimir Putin. China is becoming far more powerful, but with a foreign policy that reflects primarily economic (though still strategic) national interests.
The results are clear. The Middle East is the most vulnerable to a geopolitical leadership vacuum and is heading toward conflagration. There are six failed states across the broader region (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Yemen) and more refugees than ever recorded. ISIS has become the most powerful terrorist organization in history. Oil economies are under strain. All of this will get worse in 2016.
Europe will feel much of the pain—in economic costs, security vulnerability, and political blowback. The United States, at the twilight of Barack Obama’s administration, will mostly stick to its knitting, since the western hemisphere remains insulated from the lion’s share of geopolitical instability. In Asia, despite having many of the world’s strongest national leaders, helping manage these problems is not a priority.
This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016 with more intra-, inter-, and extra-state conflict than at any point since World War II. And yet drawing the major powers into military battle against one another—World War III—is virtually unthinkable (recent comments from Pope Francis notwithstanding). The world’s four largest economies—the United States, China, Japan, and Germany—are all deeply reluctant to accept responsibility for crisis management. Only the Germans are affected directly by this turmoil, and they still have plenty of reasons to duck the fight.
And so, in 2016, conflict intensifies. Last year, investors recognized growing uncertainty but remained more focused on the economic improvements: a US economy in recovery and Europe coming out of recession. That’s unlikely to last, as geopolitical risk shakes the global order.


今年のトップ10は以下のとおり。

1 – The Hollow Alliance:
2 – Closed Europe:
3 – The China Footprint:
4 – ISIS and “Friends”:
5 – Saudi Arabia:
6 – The rise of technologists:
7 – Unpredictable leaders:
8 – Brazil:
9 – Not enough elections:
10 – Turkey:


昨年はどうだったのかというと。。。

1 The Politics of Europe
2 Russia
3 The Effects of China Slowdown
4 Weaponization of Finance
5 ISIS, Beyond Iraq and Syria
6 Weak Incumbents
7 The Rise of Strategic Sectors
8 Saudi Arabia vs. Iran
9 Taiwan/China
10 Turkey


当時ブログで取り上げていましたが、振り返ってみて初めてサウジとイランの対立がトップ10リスクに入っていたのを知りました(汗)


8 - Saudi Arabia vs. Iran
Saudi-Iran tensions will spike during 2015, worsening the Sunni-Shia sectarian rift across the region.
The relationship will be especially volatile this year because: 1) there will be an unprecedented number of theaters of proxy conflict 2) domestic politics in both countries will enhance conflict and 3) the evolution of diplomacy on Iran's nuclear program, regardless of the outcome, will provoke more strife between Riyadh and Tehran.
The list of arenas where the two countries either support opposing proxies or hold opposing policies is longer than ever. The newest hotspot is Yemen, where the Houthis--who follow the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam, and whom the Saudis battled in 2009--recently captured most of Sanaa (the capital) and now have great influence over the government. The Saudis accuse Iran of supporting the Houthis with arms and money.
Tehran and Riyadh will have very different approaches toward Iraq's Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi. The Saudis will press for maximum inclusion of Sunnis in Iraq's government. Iran will advocate continued Shia dominance, and increasingly support Shia militias and their fight with the Islamic State. In Syria, the Saudis and Iranians will hold diametrically opposed views on the future of President Bashar al Assad, and the violent standoff between their proxies will continue. In Lebanon and Bahrain, the Saudis and Iranians will back opposite sides in tense and unstable political environments.
The Saudis are formally preparing to combat the Iranian threat on a multilateral basis, pressuring Qatar back into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) fold and obtaining GCC agreement to form a joint naval force and counterterror police unit. Direct conflict between Tehran and Riyadh is unlikely, though the increased intensity of proxy wars will further destabilize the region throughout 2015.
Inside both Iran and Saudi Arabia, domestic political friction will boost tensions. In the kingdom, succession battles are underway. Erratic foreign policy behavior is possible as contending players and groups try to demonstrate their foreign policy mettle. In Iran, much of the elite see lower oil prices as part of a Saudi plot to undermine Iran, and hardliners who support a tougher policy toward the kingdom have gained strength at the expense of President Hassan Rouhani.
Finally, intensified negotiations over Iran's nuclear program will stoke tensions. The talks will probably fail to reach a comprehensive agreement. If Washington imposes harsh new sanctions in response, Tehran will adopt a more aggressive regional policy, including toward the Saudis. If the diplomatic process settles on a "long-term interim agreement," raising expectations for an easing of sanctions on Iran, Saudi Arabia will feel exposed and more aggressively protect its regional turf. Even a partial agreement would heighten Saudi neuralgia about American commitment to its security. If a comprehensive deal is reached, an improbable but possible outcome, the Saudis' worst nightmare would become reality. Saudi leaders believe a deal would lead to a US-Iran rapprochement that will both undermine Saudi security and turn Iran into a rising geopolitical and economic power. In turn, the Saudis would quickly ramp up support for its proxies to cut Iran down to size.


もちろんこういうリスクの予想が外れて平和で暮らすのが一番なのですが。。。
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