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自分が読んで興味深く感じた英文記事を中心に取り上げる予定です

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(雑感)Human factors

 


セリーナや吉澤ひとみの件に関してついつい「100%の模範解答」から評価を下しがちです。悪いことは悪いし罰は受けなくてはいけないとは思うんですが、単なるメシウマのようにしてしまうのはどうでしょう。

突発的な出来事を前にしてどれだけ人間は模範通りの行動ができるのでしょうか。そんな時に思い出すがのこちらの映画のこの場面。ラストに近いところなのでこれ以上は触れません。。。

Ben Edwards: Multiple airports, runways, two successful landings, we are simply mimicking what the computer already told us. 
Charles Porter: Now, a lot of toes were stepped on in order to set this up for today, and frankly... I really don't know what you gentlemen plan to gain by it. 
Chesley 'Sully' Sullenberger: Can we get serious now? 
Charles Porter: Captain? 
Chesley 'Sully' Sullenberger: We've all heard about the computer simulations, and now we are watching actual sims, but I can't quite believe you still have not taken into account the human factor. 
Charles Porter: Human piloted simulations show that you could make it back to the airport. 
Chesley 'Sully' Sullenberger: No, they don't. These pilots were not behaving like human beings, like people who are experiencing this for the first time. 

何かが起こった後に「ああだ」「こうだ」言うのは簡単ですよね。以下ではHindsight is always 20-20, and everyone is always the wiser afterwards.のように表現しています。

September 20, 2016

One theme that comes up a lot in Sully, and is passionately defended by Captain Sullenberger, is the “human factor”. Hindsight is always 20-20, and everyone is always the wiser afterwards. This does not mean that we shouldn’t investigate and analyze, but the problem with the so-called experts’ initial analysis of Flight 1549, was that an engine-failure so soon after take-off was completely unprecedented, and nobody could confidently say how a human being would respond. It turns out that the computer simulations that were used by the NTSB were incorrectly stating that a pilot could have made it back safely to a runway. In actuality however, only after a large number of attempts, did any simulator pilot make it back safely (and that was using the assumption that they knew immediately what had happened and what to do). Captain Sullenberger’s defense of his own actions turned out to be right, and it was in fact only the human factor i.e. Captain Sully’s actions, that saved the lives of all 155 people on board. Turns out no computer would have done that.

とっさの判断で満点回答を出すのは難しいですよね。People are going to go off-script and make choices that may seem irrational.であることを肝に銘ずべきではないかと思うのです。

A Reel Leadership Article

12. There’s a difference between simulations and real life
The NTSB continuously told Sully and his co-pilot Skiles that the simulations said they could have made the landing at either airport they had the option of landing at. Sully knew this wasn’t accurate.

He constantly pushed back and told them the simulation was wrong. Even at the final hearing where they performed 2 human simulations and saw success.

In the viewing of the simulations, Sully saw something was wrong. There was no account for the human element.

Once they attributed the human factor into the flight simulations, both simulations crashed and burned.

As a leader, you have to account for the human factor in all that you do. People are going to go off-script and make choices that may seem irrational.

Those decisions may be. But that’s the human factor.

Be ready and willing to engage with those on your teams that have to make decisions. Don’t think the simulations or trials that you have run are the end.


少し脱線しますが、このような後知恵からの判断については、この映画ではなくても歴史学者の呉座さんの言葉も近いものを感じます。

  高久潤 朝日新聞文化くらし報道部記者

――では歴史を学ぶコツって何でしょうか

 「歴史『に』学ぶのをやめることです。歴史上の英雄は、さも未来を完全に見通して策略や陰謀を図った、という風に称賛されがちですね。でも、超能力者でもないのに『100%計算通り』なんてありえないでしょう。そんな超人から、われわれ凡人が何を学ぶんですか」

 「ビジネス書には『信長のようにビジョンを持て』などという話がよく登場しますが、ビジョンを持てばうまくいくというのは少し違う」

 「むしろ、見通しが外れたときにどう軌道修正していくかというほうが大切だし、そういう危機管理能力に注目したほうが、現代を生きる上で役立つのではないでしょうか。そこから『起死回生の一策』が生まれることもある。ただそれも、うまくいくかどうかというのは結果論によるところが大きいと思います」

もちろん「だって人間だもの」と過ちを看過すべきだと言いたいのではありません。最近intrinsic safety(本質安全)とfunctional safety(機能安全)という言葉を学んだのですが、こういう観点からより安全に進めるための仕組み作りを検討するのは大事なことでしょう。

また、本物の機長によるこちらの問題提起も重要ですね。



By/ Scott Pelley/ CBS News/ July 13, 2013, 3:12 PM

Pelley: These aircraft, and the 777 in particular, is so wondrous advanced in terms of their technology. Are we in a day and age now where pilots are just sitting in the seat while the airplane does so many things automatically, that the pilots have not had enough practice landing the airplane manually that way?
Sullenberger: That's a growing concern within the industry globally. But we must remember is that each of these airplanes, no matter how sophisticated, is at its core an airplane. It must still be flown and flown well by human pilots. We have to remember that even though this there's technology involved, human skill is involved and we must have enough practice that we can effectively manually control the airplane, and even when we're using technology, we must be engaged and aware and mentally flying the airport even if the actuation of the controls is being done by a computer.

コンピュータの自動化が進んだとしても、人間がいつでも制御できるように訓練を積んでいなければならないと語っています。
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