Uncharted Territory


RSS     Archives




Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer  Jan. 7, 2019

1. Bad seeds
2. U.S.-China
3. Cyber-gloves off
4. European populism
5. The U.S. at home
6. The winter of our innovation
7. Coalition of the unwilling
8. Mexico
9. Ukraine
10. Nigeria


1. Bad seeds
3. Cyber-globes off
6. The winter of our innovation
7. Coalition of the unwilling

メディアでの翻訳を見比べて見るとそれぞれに工夫が見られて面白かったです。後述しますが、YutaはCoalition of the unwillingを見て「乗り気でない同盟国」のようにこれまで同盟国だった欧米同士の連携がうまくいっていないことだと思ったのですが、違いました。その当たりをタイトルだけでもわかるように日本語にしてくれているのは毎日新聞と朝日新聞でしょうか。

地政学的な危険を誘発する「悪い種」(Bad Seeds)



悪い種 米欧政治の混迷、同盟関係の弱体化など
サイバー攻撃 抑止力が利かない問題も露呈へ
技術革新、冬の時代 安保上の懸念などで国際協力が停滞
国際協調に背を向ける指導者たち トルコ、ブラジルなど

さっと見てみます。まずは最初のBad seedsから。

1. Bad seeds
World leaders are so busy dealing with local crises that they’re ignoring much bigger problems down the road. 2019 is the year “bad seeds” are being planted that will eventually threaten the entire global order.

Examples? Political institutions across the world’s advanced democracies, the transatlantic alliance, NATO, the European Union, the G20, the World Trade Organization, U.S.-China, Russia and the West… none of these will explode this year, but every one of them is headed in the wrong direction.

bad seedにはイディオムで「問題児」のような意味があるそうですが、ここでは文字通りの意味の「種」が比喩的に使われています。本文でも後段でExamples?とbad seedsの具体例を挙げてくれています。

bad seed

bad seed
US, Canadian and Australian informal
a person who is seen as being congenitally disposed to wrongdoing and likely to be a bad influence on others

TIMEでも “bad seeds” are being plantedとあったり、動画でも次のようにあります。ここでは「種」が植物のイメージをベースしていることがわかります。

In 2019 a number of "bad seeds" will put down deeper roots while global leaders are looking elsewhere.

サイトでの詳しい説明でもTHE GEOPOLITICAL DANGERS TAKING SHAPE AROUND THE WORLD will bear fruit in the years to comeとあります。これから種がどんどん成長して危機を引き起こすことを懸念しているようです。

THE GEOPOLITICAL DANGERS TAKING SHAPE AROUND THE WORLD will bear fruit in the years to come. This is the greatest impact of the G-Zero: The world's decision-makers are so consumed with addressing (or failing to address) the daily crises that arise from a world without leadership that they're allowing a broad array of future risks to germinate, with serious consequences for our collective midterm future.  

英語本文ではbad seedsのみですが、日経のように「地政学的な危険を誘発する「悪い種」(Bad Seeds)」としてもらった方がパッと見ただけで内容を想像できますね。

次はCyber-gloves off。

3. Cyber-gloves off
Hackers build new skills, our digital dependency deepens, and there are still no realistic rules of the road to help avoid cyber-conflict. It’s hard to halt an attack. You can’t tell whether it’s a government, a thief, a terrorist or anarchist who’s shooting at you. Your cyber-defenses fast become obsolete. And 2019 will be the year the U.S. government goes on offense. The results are tough to predict.

こちらはThe gloves are offというイディオムから来ているとみていいでしょう。こういう見極めは時に難しいですが、あくまで本文を読んで判断するしかなさそうです。

The gloves are off.

the gloves are off
used to say that somebody is ready for a fight or an argument

TIMEのコラムでは短すぎるので、2019 will be the year the U.S. government goes on offense. The results are tough to predict.で終わってしまっているので、アメリカ側が攻勢に出るかの印象ですが、サイトでの詳しい説明を読むと各メディアが「本格化」「熾烈化」「激化」と書いたように、抑制の難しさを2点あげて説明しています。国家以外のアクターもいるし、抑止をもろともしない国家もあるので、サイバー戦争はこれからも大変そうです。

In an ideal world, this show of teeth would lead foreign actors to keep their arsenals in check and create a new security equilibrium in which perceptions of US cyber dominance would discourage attacks. That's not going to work—for two reasons.

First, like traditional deterrence, cyber deterrence works best against states. But many of the world's most destructive cyber actors are non-state actors who have less to lose from taking their chances on offense...

Second, even governments won't back down in reaction to Trump's assertive cyber policy...

朝日は「サイバー攻撃 抑止力が利かない問題も露呈へ」と説明的なタイトルにしていますが、改めて内容を見た後だと、的確に内容を伝えてくれていることがわかります。

最後に一番ぴんとこなかったCoalition of the unwillingです。

7. Coalition of the unwilling
Donald Trump now has imitators. Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro used a playbook like Trump’s to win an election. Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Erdogan, and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un have tactical reasons to promote the US president. Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman and Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu need his support. These leaders don’t salute a common flag, but each will bolster Trump’s challenge to the international status quo.

この説明を読むとトランプ的な指導者が世界各地で登場していて現状の国際秩序を脅かすということですね。サイトではなぜCoalition of the unwillingと呼ぶのか説明してくれています。

Call them the “coalition of the unwilling,” because they won't form an actual alliance—nationalists don't salute a common flag. But for Trump's impact on foreign policy, which is significantly greater than on domestic policy, this group of fellow malcontents can act as a force multiplier. That poses a number of risks.

In the aggregate, this coalition will speed the erosion of the international system. Putin and Salvini have become more mainstream, and greater acceptance boosts their revisionist goals. All these men are unpredictable, which makes geopolitics and investing riskier. Mohammed bin Salman isolated Qatar, disrupted relations with Canada, and—in the opinion of US intelligence—ordered the killing of a prominent critic. All were bolts from the blue. Putin's penchant for the unexpected is also well-documented. And members of this “coalition” all have outsized egos. That means that the need to feed the political base—not the greater good—will play outsized roles in their decision-making. 

そのまま「意志なき連合」としても誤解を生みやすいので、説明的になってしまいますが、毎日の「(リベラルな世界秩序に)反抗的な連合体」や朝日の「国際協調に背を向ける指導者たち トルコ、ブラジルなど」がわかりやすくて助かります。