人命は地球より重い

「人命は地球より重い」は1977年ダッカ日航機ハイジャック事件での福田首相の言葉ですね。Wikipediaなどでは以下のように英訳されていました。

The value of a human life outweighs the Earth.

The life of a single person outweighs the earth.

The gravity of a human life far outweighs the earth.

こんな言葉が浮かんだのは少し前のクオモNY州知事の“We’re not going to put a dollar figure on human life.”と言う言葉を知ったから。ロックダウンは経済に影響を及ぼすと言う声がある中、3月30日のニューヨークタイムズの社説でもWhile policymakers must sometimes make trade-offs between life and money, this is not such a moment. The American economy needs to be shut down in order to preserve both human life and long-term prosperity.ときっぱり言っています。

How America Can Reopen

If summer is to bring any sense of normalcy, the country’s leaders must act quickly.

By The Editorial Board

Dan Patrick, the lieutenant governor of Texas, took the opposite view last week, arguing that Americans should go back to work even if that causes the deaths of their grandparents, whom he suggested would willingly sacrifice their lives for the sake of economic growth. President Trump grudgingly agreed Sunday night to extend the federal government’s social distancing guidelines until the end of April, but he too has made clear that he believes efforts to save lives will come at the expense of the economy.

This is a false choice. While policymakers must sometimes make trade-offs between life and money, this is not such a moment. The American economy needs to be shut down in order to preserve both human life and long-term prosperity. During the 1918 influenza pandemic, communities that quickly imposed stringent measures not only saved lives but experienced stronger economic rebounds, according to a new study. The message is clear: Coronavirus is a danger to life and prosperity; a strong public health response is the needed corrective.

It increasingly appears necessary that for the next eight weeks, and possibly for longer, all nonessential businesses should be closed, domestic travel restricted and the “shelter-in-place” measures being employed by some parts of the country extended to the rest. Such a shutdown will be enormously expensive in the short term, likely requiring fresh rounds of federal aid on top of the $2.2 trillion Congress approved on Friday. But scientists say that based on what they’ve learned from Europe and Asia, that’s the only way to get the virus, which is spreading like wildfire across the country, under control.

この社説で紹介されていた研究はこちら。1918年のスペイン風邪の時に迅速にロックダウンした都市の方が経済の立ち直りも早かったそうです。まあ結論ありの研究もあるので気をつけて読まないといけないかもしれませんがん、心配なまま通勤したくないのでロックダウンして欲しいYutaとしては日本政府の方にも読ませたいです。

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

45 Pages Posted: 26 Mar 2020 Last revised: 1 Apr 2020

Abstract

What are the economic consequences of an influenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interven- tions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

ニューヨークはまだそんな雰囲気ではないですが、今週のEconomistはまさにそのtrade-offs between life and moneyについて考察していました。長引くにつれてリーダーはこのtrafe-offsに向き合って回答を出さないといけないとして、どのようなポイントを考えればいいかまとめています。

Covid-19 presents stark choices between life, death and the economy

The trade-offs required by the pandemic will get even harder

Leaders Apr 2nd 2020 edition

The governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, has declared that “We’re not going to put a dollar figure on human life.” It was meant as a rallying-cry from a courageous man whose state is overwhelmed. Yet by brushing trade-offs aside, Mr Cuomo was in fact advocating a choice—one that does not begin to reckon with the litany of consequences among his wider community. It sounds hard-hearted but a dollar figure on life, or at least some way of thinking systematically, is precisely what leaders will need if they are to see their way through the harrowing months to come. As in that hospital ward, trade-offs are unavoidable.

******

Between tragedies and statistics

The hard choices covid policymakers face

Epidemiological models are among their only guides

Briefing Apr 4th 2020 edition

trade-offに真摯に向き合ってリーダーは難しい決断をしなくてはいけないのでしょう。日本の場合trade-offを決められず最悪のtrade-offを引き起こすことになりそうで恐怖しかありません。

Economistの表紙は墓地のイラストで十字架の代わりに英語での正にあたるtallyが使われていました。たくさんの方がなくなっているのが現実なんでしょう。日本では志村けんの死によって死に至る病であることを意識したレベルでしょうから、そこらへんの危機感の違いはまだあるかもしれません。