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日本だと『権威主義の誘惑:民主政治の黄昏』の著書として知られているでしょうかアン・アプルボーム女史。スターリンによるウクライナの飢餓を書いたRed Famineの著者でもあります。アトランティックにプーチンとウクライナについて寄稿していました。

プーチンのモチベーションとして、NATOの東方拡大阻止、ウクライナとロシアとの親和性などが挙げられますが、アプルボームはプーチンが阻止しようとしているのは民主主義であると主張しています。最後の部分を紹介してしまっていますので、1から読み始めたい方はリンク先の記事をお読みください。Fiona Fillの論でもあるようですが、プーチンは1989年の冷戦終了時期にはロシアではなく東ドイツにいたので、ソ連崩壊までを経験しておらず、それが今の在り方に影響を及ぼしているとしています。

He is threatening to invade Ukraine because he wants democracy to fail—and not just in that country.
By Anne ApplebaumFebruary 4, 2022


And yet at the same time, Putin’s position is extremely precarious. Despite all of that power and all of that money, despite total control over the information space and total domination of the political space, Putin must know, at some level, that he is an illegitimate leader. He has never won a fair election, and he has never campaigned in a contest that he could lose. He knows that the political system he helped create is profoundly unfair, that his regime not only runs the country but owns it, making economic and foreign-policy decisions that are designed to benefit the companies from which he and his inner circle personally profit. He knows that the institutions of the state exist not to serve the Russian people, but to steal from them. He knows that this system works very well for a few rich people, but very badly for everyone else. He knows, in other words, that one day, prodemocracy activists of the kind he saw in Dresden might come for him too.


Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine again—or pretending he will invade Ukraine again—for the same reason. He wants to destabilize Ukraine, frighten Ukraine. He wants Ukrainian democracy to fail. He wants the Ukrainian economy to collapse. He wants foreign investors to flee. He wants his neighbors—in Belarus, Kazakhstan, even Poland and Hungary—to doubt whether democracy will ever be viable, in the longer term, in their countries too. Farther abroad, he wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail.

These are big goals, and they might not be achievable. But Putin’s beloved Soviet Union also had big, unachievable goals. Lenin, Stalin, and their successors wanted to create an international revolution, to subjugate the entire world to the Soviet dictatorship of the proletariat. Ultimately, they failed—but they did a lot of damage while trying. Putin will also fail, but he too can do a lot of damage while trying. And not only in Ukraine.

Timothy SnyderとかRichard Haasとかもウクライナについて書いているようなので、色々読んでみようと思います。