ロシアとアフリカ

ケニヤの国連大使のスピーチが話題になりましたが、アフリカの国々は一枚岩ではなく、ロシアの非難決議を棄権したり、意思表明をしない国が多かったです。

South Africa Criticized for Abstaining on UN Ukraine Resolution

March 03, 2022 1:49 PM　Vicky Stark

アフリカとロシアの関係ですぐに思いつくのが傭兵などの、軍事に関することですが、その他にも資源関係や独裁者の選挙運動の手助けもしているそうです。

The future of Russia-Africa relations

Joseph SiegleWednesday, February 2, 2022

Africa, thus, is a “theater” for Russia’s geostrategic interests rather than a destination itself—a perspective reflected in the means that Russia employs. Unlike most major external partners, Russia is not investing significantly in conventional statecraft in Africa—e.g., economic investment, trade, and security assistance. Rather, Russia relies on a series of asymmetric (and often extralegal) measures for influence—mercenaries, arms-for-resource deals, opaque contracts, election interference, and disinformation.

支配階層と仲良くしていて、民衆はその皺寄せが来ているというのは、ロシア国内でも言えるのかもしれませんが、その分離がアフリカでは顕著のようです。支配階層だけと繋がればいいので、ロシアとしては少ないリソースで対応できるので、中国のようなインフラ投資などで影響力を行使するのとは違うようです。

This strategy works for Russia and the respective leaders who gain international diplomatic cover, resources to consolidate power domestically, a mercenary force, arms, and revenues from resource deals. However, Russia’s opaque engagements are inherently destabilizing for the citizens of the targeted countries, resulting in stunted economic development, human rights abuses, disenfranchisement of African citizens, the perpetuation of illegitimate governments, and social polarization.

Through this model, Russia has been able to advance its objectives with limited financial and political costs. Accordingly, we can expect to see Moscow continuing to expand its influence on the continent in 2022.

同じような指摘をしている記事ですが、国々でロシアはからみ方が異なるようです。他の記事では2014年のクリミア併合でロシアは制裁を受けており、アフリカとの協力を見出そうとしていたとか。

African leaders condemn Russia, but some remain silent as Moscow’s influence hits home

PUBLISHED THU, MAR 3 20221:38 AM EST　Elliot Smith

Harry Broadman, chair of emerging markets at consulting firm Berkeley Research Group and former economic adviser for the Africa region at the World Bank, highlighted that Russia’s relationships in Africa are largely tied to ruling elites in countries with vast chasms between leaders and the general population.

“It’s a relatively small number of countries, but they all have one characteristic which is that they’re quite shaky and resource-oriented, or they have military leaderships at the very top,” he told CNBC on Thursday.

He suggested the African Union will have difficulty establishing itself as a “powerful entity” in opposing Russia, since Moscow’s strategy is not continent-wide.

“They’re picking off certain countries based upon the elites, based upon minerals, based upon military interests – it’s a very different strategy than what China has been doing,” he added. China, in contrast, has developed an Africa-wide economic presence through decades of loan financing and infrastructure investment.

一般民衆はロシアと無関係ではなく、原油価格の高騰によるインフレや小麦などの食糧価格高騰がアフリカの国々に影響を与えるとか。

ウクライナ侵攻の余波「小麦争奪戦」も　強まる値上げ圧力

浅川大樹 松山文音 和田憲二 　毎日新聞 2022/3/5 07:00（最終更新 3/5 07:20） 有料記事 2023文字

　ロシアによるウクライナ侵攻の余波が食卓に及びそうだ。両国は穀物の生産が盛んで、とりわけ小麦は世界有数の産地。港湾の混乱で輸出が滞る懸念から、小麦の国際相場は急上昇して約14年ぶりに最高値を更新しており、最近値上がりしたばかりの小麦粉やパン、麺類の価格にさらなる上昇圧力がかかる。次の値上げはいつごろ、やってくるのだろうか。

日本はロシアやウクライナの小麦は輸入していないそうですね。

米農務省によると、21～22年度の小麦輸出量はロシアが世界最大の3500万トン、ウクライナも2400万トンとなる見通しで、両国だけで世界全体の約3割を占める。これらロシアやウクライナ産の小麦は、主に黒海沿岸から中東や北アフリカへ輸出されており、日本は輸入していない。

Ukraine crisis: What's at stake for Africa?

As Russian missiles hit Ukraine, experts are warning that the impact of the conflict is bound to reverberate across the African continent.

Date 25.02.2022　Author Chrispin Mwakideu

ロシアとウクライナの穀物での存在感の大きさを書いてくれているのが次の記事。黒海でも戦闘が起きているので、食糧を積んだ船などは近づけていないそうです。

This is how the Russian-Ukraine conflict affects Africa

Published Feb 25, 2022 By Wandile Sihlobo

There is significant agricultural trade between countries on the continent and Russia and Ukraine. African countries imported agricultural products worth US$4 billion from Russia in 2020. About 90% of this was wheat, and 6% was sunflower oil. Major importing countries were Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of the imports, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Similarly, Ukraine exported US$2.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the African continent in 2020. About 48% of this was wheat, 31% maize, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley, and soy beans.

Russia and Ukraine are substantial players in the global commodities market. Russia produces about 10% of global wheat while Ukraine accounts for 4%. Combined, this is nearly the size of the European Union’s total wheat production. The wheat is for domestic consumption and well as export markets. Together the two countries account for a quarter of global wheat exports. In 2020 Russia accounted for 18%, and Ukraine 8%.

Both countries are also notable players in maize, responsible for a combined maize production of 4%. However, Ukraine and Russia’s contribution is even more significant in exports, accounting for 14% of global maize exports in 2020. Both countries are also among the leading producers and exporters of sunflower oil. In 2020, Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports accounted for 40% of global exports, with Russia accounting for 18% of global sunflower oil exports.

原油や食糧のことを考えると戦争とは両国間の問題だけではなくなるんだなという素朴な実感をしました。この記事の冒頭で使われていたのがソクラテスの言葉。こういう問題の時にはよく登場しそうですね。

No man qualifies as a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problems of wheat - The words of the ancient Greek philosopher, Socrates.