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IPCC:5次報告書公表へ/上 温暖化の状況、より確度高く
毎日新聞 2013年09月20日 東京朝刊




The final assessment
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has provided invaluable evidence for policy-makers, but giant reports should give way to nimbler, more relevant research.
18 September 2013

The first working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will deliver its assessment of the science of global warming at a meeting in Stockholm next week. This will be the fifth time that the IPCC has delivered such an assessment; some 23 years have passed since the first effort. Many things have changed in that time; others have not. Regardless, it is time to rethink the IPCC. The organization deserves thanks and respect from all who care about the principle of evidence-based policy-making, but the current report should be its last mega-assessment.

この報告書の意義に関しては、Yes, greenhouse gases are changing the climate. Yes, we are already seeing substantial impacts, and more are on the way. And yes, this adds up to a problem for society that is significant and warrants immediate attention.と否定していません。ただ、今更報告書に出して言うべきことでもないだろうと手厳しいです。今必要なのは総花的なものではないというのです。

But none of this is news, and that is the problem. The IPCC’s fifth assessment will provide a comprehensive analysis of policy options and the scientific basis for the next round of climate negotiations, which are scheduled to come to a head in 2015. What is missing from these talks is not science but political ambition, which is ultimately a reflection of public support. The IPCC has a crucial role in this process and must remain the central authority on global warming. It is not clear, however, that to immediately launch into yet another comprehensive assessment — which would consume immeasurable time and energy, and would probably come to the same bottom-line conclusions — represents the best use of our scientific resources.

Instead, climate scientists should focus on smaller and more rapid assessments of more pressing questions that have a particular political interest and for which science is evolving quickly. These reports could look more like the panel’s recent special report on extreme weather; longer and more detailed assessments could be performed as needed, when there is sufficient interest from the governments that the IPCC serves.

確かに「今こそ実行の時だ」と2007年から言い続けていますもんねえ。The final assessmentというタイトルはこのような報告書は最後にして欲しいというNatureの立場のあらわれかもしれません。


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